Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling2080 or later 96.4%Koploper van 7 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
10
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 uur geleden
Verouderd1 jun 25, 11:51 UTC31 dec 99, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will South Korea's total fertility rate exceed 1 by 2035
Manifold MarketsIn twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Manifold MarketsUS fertility rate in 2030 >= 1.7 if (and only if) Taylor Swift announces a pregnancy by 2029?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first year in which the global total fertility rate falls below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
- The TFR is defined as the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates.
- The resolution will be based on data from the United Nations Population Division, unless someone makes a compelling argue for using another source.
- The global TFR has been on a steady decline over the past several decades.
- In 1950, the global TFR was approximately 4.84 children per woman, which decreased to 2.23 by 2021.
Open markten
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 30,8K
- 24u volume
- € 18K
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Totaal volume
- € 8,7K
- 24u volume
- € 7,7K
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 15,4K
- 24u volume
- € 952,2
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Totaal volume
- € 516,1
- 24u volume
- € 516,1
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Totaal volume
- € 516,1
- 24u volume
- € 516,1
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Totaal volume
- € 136,3K
- 24u volume
- € 419
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade??
- Manifold Markets prijst 2080 or later op 96% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade? afgewikkeld?
- Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2099 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Global total fertility rate below 2.1 in what decade? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria