Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 79.9%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd28 jul 23, 08:54 UTC1 jan 43, 21:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Matthew Barnett win his bet with Bryan Caplan on whether there will be explosive growth by 2043?
Manifold MarketsWill the fast-growth side win the benjaminmoll growth bet?
Manifold MarketsWill "Explosive AI-driven growth" side of bet proposed by Ben Moll win?
Manifold MarketsWill Perplexity's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketHow high will US gas prices get in 2026?
KalshiWill the S&P finish positive this year?
KalshiRegels
Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- Ted thinks there’s very little chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.
- On Twitter, they agreed to a bet.
- Tweet thread.
- Economist Bryan Caplan says it's very unlikely, because "How is Gross World Product supposed to more than double in a year in a world where you have to wait a decade just to assemble the right building permits?"
- By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.2pt69.2%
- ChatGPT+1.6pt14.4%
- Gemini-1.3pt9.6%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 125,4K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+9.0pt78%
- December 15,+9.5pt74%
- November 30,+4.0pt54%
+7 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202791%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+1.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-1.0pt82%
+9 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 1,9 mln.
POLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 21+61.1pt87.9%
- No release by September 30-10.7pt4%
- September 22-26.9pt1%
+13 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude92.5%
- ChatGPT0.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 156,3K
- 24u volume
- € 26,1K
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI launch a consumer hardware product by which date?
- December-13.0pt28%
- October-14.0pt7%
- December 31, 2025-0.2pt0%
+1 extra uitkomsten
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Explosive growth bet?
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 80% per 21 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Explosive growth bet afgewikkeld?
- Explosive growth bet wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2043 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Explosive growth bet afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Matthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043.