Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 51%
Voorspellers
8
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd10 aug 23, 15:52 UTC2 jan 33, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will we deploy large geoengineering efforts to thwart a runaway global warming before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2027, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill global warming be 1.5 °Celsius or higher in 2026, according to Berkeley Earth?
Manifold MarketsWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRegels
[Temporary market to group comments and feedback.
- I'll adjust the description and terms before officially starting it.
- If lots of people bet before it starts I may NA this one and make another one.
- There will be a series of markets about geoengineering covering different time scales and different organizations doing the work such as the usgov, in, EU, China, as well as other private companies.
- Please let me know what you think here or in discord]
- Musk, an existing company he founded, or a future company he founds will announce actual projects happening to do very large scale geoengineering to effect or relieve global warming by removing carbon from the atmosphere, or by reducing light absorption to the atmosphere using solar sails or umbrellas, or by emitting sulfur to reflect more light, or other project large scale.