Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible?
GeopolitiekOne-OffHealth & MedicineSpaceWeatherManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingIndifferent (to humans) AI 37.6%Koploper van 4 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
8
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
0.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd22 aug 26, 20:36 UTC31 dec 50, 23:59 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This is a conditional market.
- If human extinction does not occur, or if it is caused by a factor entirely unrelated to AI (such as a standard asteroid impact, a naturally occurring pandemic, or a nuclear war without significant AI involvement), this market will resolve to N/A. If AI is indeed the primary driver of human extinction, this market will resolve to the single option that represents the primary failure mode responsible, based on historical consensus, surviving records, or the best available post-event analysis:
- the named outcome: The AI system actively sought to destroy or harm humanity due to possessing hostile, adversarial, or malevolent goals (e.g., viewing humanity as an active threat to its existence or objectives that must be eliminated).
- Indifferent / misaligned AI: The AI had no active malice or hostility toward humanity, but its goals were misaligned with human survival.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible??
- Manifold Markets prijst Indifferent (to humans) AI op 38% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? afgewikkeld?
- Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2050 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Conditional on AI causing human extinction, which failure mode will be primarily responsible? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria