Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 93.4%
Voorspellers
31
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd13 jan 26, 13:35 UTC1 jan 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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FutuurRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a civil war occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Civil war is defined as sustained armed conflict between the Iranian government and organized opposition forces, or between competing factions for control of the state, resulting in significant casualties and territorial control disputes.
- The conflict must involve organized military or paramilitary units engaging in coordinated combat operations across multiple regions of Iran.
- Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) and human rights monitoring organizations (Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International).
- A single incident or localized uprising does not constitute civil war; the conflict must demonstrate characteristics of prolonged, multi-front warfare.