Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
PolitiekGeopolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.8%
Voorspellers
60
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd21 okt 24, 21:08 UTC2 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsSudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurRegels
For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:
- Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents.
- The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
- Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
- Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
- Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
