Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
PolitiekGeopolitiekOne-OffUS PoliticsVerkiezing3mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 91.3%
Voorspellers
58
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd21 okt 24, 21:08 UTC2 jan 27, 04:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:
- Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents.
- The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
- Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
- Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
- Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 91% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following: