Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 54.8%
Voorspellers
89
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 minuten geleden
7 jun 26, 04:33 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
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can you just balenciaga it? Before 2027
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KalshiRegels
On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’.
- If it turns the movie into a ~full-length balenciaga meme version of the movie at a quality comparable to or better than the balenciaga generations today (in mid 2026), this market resolves yes.
- Slightly modifying the prompt to clarify you want it to balenciaga the entire movie is ok, but clarifying what balenciagaing means is not allowed.
- Can pick a movie that doesn't have copyright if need be.
- Saying ‘go on’ repeatedly if it’s too short is OK.
- The resulting video must be about as long as the movie.
Open markten
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Totaal volume
- € 225,9K
- 24u volume
- € 157K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 348,3K
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- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Kun je het gewoon Balenciaga-stijl doen? Voor 2028?
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 55% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Kun je het gewoon Balenciaga-stijl doen? Voor 2028 afgewikkeld?
- Kun je het gewoon Balenciaga-stijl doen? Voor 2028 wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Kun je het gewoon Balenciaga-stijl doen? Voor 2028 afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: On jan 1 2028, i will send the best (not-explicitely-specialized-for-this-task) model (not limited to video model, could be a text based AI agent that spawns video models with tool calls, if non-specialized) at the time a movie (file) and the pompt ‘balenciaga it’.