By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
AI3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling< 0.05x 35.4%Koploper van 6 uitkomsten
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Verouderd2 feb 26, 01:41 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Intelligence bar
- "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent intelligence" is defined as any commercially available model scoring the same as Gemini 3 Pro on ECI or better
- Currently this is 154, but the bar will track any changes in ECI methodology that might change the 3 Pro score.
- Cost is defined as the price for 1m input tokens plus 1m output tokens for the cheapest model that passes the quality bar, at the generally-available API pricing tier for that model.
- At time of writing, 3-pro preview costs $2/Mtok input plus $12/Mtok output, so $14 is the reference cost basis.
- E.g. a future qualifying model that costs $1/Mtok input plus $3/MTok output would resolve as 4/14 = 0.286... thus 0.2x-0.5x.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year??
- Manifold Markets prijst < 0.05x op 35% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? afgewikkeld?
- By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Intelligence bar