By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Veelgestelde vragen

Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 88.9% per 26 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) afgewikkeld?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+12.0pt94%
• December 15,+11.0pt92%
• November 30,+31.0pt90%

+15 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 5,3 mln.

24u volume

€ 306K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+14.0pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+1.0pt55.1%
• Google36.7%
• OpenAI-0.7pt5.1%

+12 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+19.0pt99.5%
• America First+64.0pt99.5%
• American Dream+65.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-5.0pt29.4%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.3pt22.6%
• $1.5–$1.75T+0.8pt17.6%

+7 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+2.8pt57.8%
• Gemini-0.8pt30.5%
• ChatGPT-0.1pt

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• Best AI this week
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• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?