Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 93%
Voorspellers
44
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 uur geleden
Verouderd16 sep 22, 21:19 UTC1 jan 30, 08:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
Manifold MarketsBy 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketRegels
In the [original post](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things) Gary Marcus bets that <3 will resolve to YES.
- Will he lose his bet?
- This market resolves YES if I believe he lost, i.e. I resolve at least three of the other markets to YES, not if Gary Marcus admits he lost.
- Links to the other markets:
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-watc
- https://manifold.markets/vluzko/by-2029-will-any-ai-be-able-to-read
