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Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
25 mei 24, 22:11 UTC2 jan 35, 06:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegels
This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.
- I expect it to resolve the same, but this is not guaranteed and I will evaluate as independently as possible.
- I may copy clarifications from that market, but that is per my judgment.
- The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 102,1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 44,4K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Anthropic market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 95% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? afgewikkeld?
- Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2035 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This is an equivalent question to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/before-2035-will-there-exist-any-ai, except that it resolves based on my judgment instead of @IsaacKing's.