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Verouderd18 dec 23, 08:54 UTC2 jan 35, 04:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsBefore 2030, will we have AI that can play Minecraft, understand movies, etc. and not resist shutdown?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegels
The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
- (If necessary, I'll find some humans for it to compete with and compare its success against.
- The other people in the server must start unaware of who is an AI vs. a human competitor.
- They must be normal Minecraft players, not people there to specifically help or hinder the AI.)
Open markten
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt56.3%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt24.3%
- Grok+2.4pt7.8%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 102,1K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,4 mln.
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+62.0pt99%
- Video+55.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt62.5%
- 2026-10.0pt25%
- September 30, 2026-4.0pt12.5%
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 extra uitkomsten
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 44,4K
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 85% per 10 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? afgewikkeld?
- Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2035 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.