Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
AIOne-Off3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 55.5%
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Verouderd20 sep 25, 22:10 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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SimpleQA is an obscure trivia benchmark OpenAI uses to evaluate hallucination rate.
- Resolves yes if a Frontier model released by OpenAI declines to answer SimpleQA questions at least 5 times as often as it incorrectly answers them.
- To resolve yes, the model must not have access to the internet or any database of facts.
- I will be largely looking towards OpenAI's evaluations to resolve this market but will accept 3rd party evals if OpenAI stops using SimpleQA.
- OpenAI's latest frontier model GPT-5-thinking has only a 1:8 ratio.
- However, OpenAI claimed in a recent paper that they have new insights into why LLMs hallucinate and how to prevent them.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 56% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA? afgewikkeld?
- Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: SimpleQA is an obscure trivia benchmark OpenAI uses to evaluate hallucination rate.