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Verouderd16 feb 26, 03:39 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Before 2027, will OpenAI release a frontier model with a 5:1 or better abstention to hallucination ratio on SimpleQA?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2027, will OpenAI release a Frontier Model trained according to their "Why LLMs hallucinate" paper?
Manifold MarketsWill China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBefore 2028, will any AI lab release a frontier model that performs O(n) sequence modeling?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketRegels
https://www.ft.com/content/f1ec830c-2f08-4b1a-b70f-7330f260753c
- Microsoft has announced their intention to train their own frontier LLM / foundation model, independent of OpenAI.
- Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Microsoft AI, stated that Microsoft is now prioritizing the development of its own in-house "frontier foundation models." He described this as a move toward "true AI self-sufficiency" to reduce the company's near-total dependence on OpenAI for its flagship products.
- The reports highlight a model lineup referred to as MAI (including the MAI-1 preview mentioned in earlier contexts).
- These models are being trained on massive "gigawatt-scale compute" clusters and are expected to be released "sometime this year" (2026).
- Market resolves to YES if Microsoft succeeds in training and releasing their own frontier-level language model before the end of 2026.