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Verouderd23 sep 25, 01:52 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsSuperhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegels
https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2026, there is at least one publicly released empirical study with n > 1000 human participants that reports a statistically significant reduction in unassisted problem-solving performance for “heavy AI users” (as defined by the study: e.g., top-quantile usage logs, assigned heavy-use condition, or clearly specified frequent-use threshold) compared to lighter/non-users or to their own baseline when AI is not allowed during the outcome assessment (p < 0.05 or 95% CI excluding zero).
- “Unassisted problem-solving” = tasks completed without AI access at test time (e.g., proctored exams, reasoning/problem-solving assessments where AI tools are prohibited).
- n > 1000 refers to unique participants analyzed (not number of items/tasks/observations).
- Multi-site replications may aggregate across identical protocols if the combined participant count exceeds 1000.
Open markten
AIKALSHIWhat will Trump say during his United Nations meetings?
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- Zelensky99%
- Cartel99%
+38 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
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- 24u volume
- € 368K
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.3pt69.3%
- ChatGPT-0.3pt13.9%
- Gemini+0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,4 mln.
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic-0.3pt99%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
- Meta-0.1pt0%
+18 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETTrump renames AI by September 30?
- No-24.0pt68.3%
- Yes+24.0pt31.7%
- Totaal volume
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,79%
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- November 30,57%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 3,3 mln.
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 20264%
- Totaal volume
- € 85,5K
- 24u volume
- € 64,4K
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 61% per 22 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Any study (n>1000) shows reduction in unassisted problem-solving among heavy AI users by end 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: https://joeandseth.substack.com/p/prompt-writing-outsourcing-cognition