KalshiBeschikbaarheid controlerenKYC vereist2% kostenGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige impliciete kans
Above $600 billion 100%Koploper van 8 uitkomstenMarge-gecorrigeerd: de ruwe noteringen telden op tot boven 100% en zijn genormaliseerd.
Marktkwaliteit
45 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
—
Liquiditeit
€ 1,7
Lage liquiditeitSpread
4.0 pt
Gematigde spreadMarktdata
Bijgewerkt 5 minuten geleden
26 aug 26, 19:00 UTC2 feb 32, 13:29 UTC
Trends
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Regels
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Afwikkeling via:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2031.
Open markten
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 91 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 569,7K
- 24u volume
- € 47,4K
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 359,2K
- 24u volume
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 79,7K
- 24u volume
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 18,3K
- 24u volume
- € 7,3K
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor US trade deficit for 2031?
- Kalshi prijst Above $600 billion op 100% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt US trade deficit for 2031 afgewikkeld?
- US trade deficit for 2031 wordt naar verwachting op 2 februari 2032 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt US trade deficit for 2031 afgewikkeld?
- Kalshi wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.