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[ACX 2026] Will China attack or blockade Taiwan during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
Manifold MarketsWill China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)
Manifold MarketsWill China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketUS imposes new sanctions on China by which date?
PolymarketRegels
This market predicts whether China will blockade Taiwan during calendar year 2026.
- If, at any time in this period, most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 continuous days due to physical actions by China, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The Primary Designated Source is the Taiwanese Ministry of National Defence and the Republic of China (Taiwan) Mainland Affairs Council, supplemented by official statements from the U.S. Department of Defense and a consensus of credible reporting (Reuters, AP, Bloomberg, Financial Times, Nikkei Asia).
- A reduction in port traffic must be directly due to Chinese physical actions — cyberattacks, threats, or unrelated closures do not qualify.
- For this market, ports administered by Taiwan include but are not limited to ports in Penghu, Kinmen, the Matsu Islands, Green Island, Orchid Island, and Xiaoliuqiu.