Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.5%
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68
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 19 uur geleden
Verouderd6 jan 26, 22:33 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?
PolymarketWill China blockade Taiwan during 2026?
FutuurIf Trump wins, will China attack Taiwan before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US mass airlift chips from Taiwan if China implements a blockade?
Manifold MarketsWill China engage in a full-scale blockade against Taiwan before the following years? (2030)
Manifold MarketsWill China set up an economic blockade against Taiwan by restricting/blocking > 50% of Taiwanese maritime/ship-based trade by beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegels
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41139) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if during 2026, any of the following occur:
- Chine conducts a military attack on any land territory held by Taiwan.
- China conducts a military attack on Taiwan's military forces or coast guard.
- Most commercial ship traffic to at least one port administered by Taiwan ceases for at least 5 days due to physical actions by China.