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This event predicts whether Scotland will formally become an independent state separate from the United Kingdom at any time between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official UK and Scottish government acts or international recognition confirming independence.
- If Scotland formally becomes an independent state during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- Referendums, negotiations, or legislative steps that do not result in formal independence taking effect will not count.
- If official documentation is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.
