Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?
5.7 pt (24h)One-OffPoliticaEuropeCrime & JusticeElezione
PolymarketChiusoVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes
Risolto: 9 lug 2026, 03:35
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Esito Vincente
Yes
A 7 giorni
20%
A 24 ore
94%
ConsensoProbabilità implicita attuale
Sì 100%+0.1pt
Qualità del mercato
45 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
2,9K €
Liquidità
—
Liquidità sconosciutaBid / Ask
97.6% / 100.0%
Spread
2.4 pt
Spread moderatoVariazione 7g
+80.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 53 giorni fa
Obsoleto19 gen 26, 20:2131 mar 26, 0:00
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes100%
No0%
100%
0%
Regole
On March 31, 2025, Marine Le Pen was sentenced to a five-year ban from public office for embezzlement of public funds, potentially blocking her from the 2027 presidential race.
- The appeal focuses on this penalty, with hearings currently scheduled to run from January 13 to February 12.
- You can read more about that here: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2026/01/13/understanding-marine-le-pen-s-crucial-appeals-trial_6749363_8.html.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Paris Court of Appeal issues an initial appeal decision, lifting, annulling, suspending, or otherwise removing Marine Le Pen’s ineligibility penalty such that she is legally permitted to run for public office again, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve immediately based on the first merits judgment rendered by the Paris Court of Appeal in this appeal, regardless of any subsequent appeals or legal proceedings.
