PolymarketChiusoVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: No
Risolto: 4 feb 2024, 01:01
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Probabilità implicita attuale
No 100%
Qualita del mercato
15 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
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Liquidità sconosciutaDati di mercato
Aggiornato 123 giorni fa
Obsoleto6 dic 23, 23:1631 dic 23, 0:00
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes0%
No100%
100%
0%
Regole
If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Only models accessible to the public (e.g. developers or public sign-ups) will count for this market.
- If Google deploys a new model in 2023 that could reach the top of the leaderboard but is not yet ranked at year's end due to time required for evaluation, this market's resolution may be delayed until February 1, 2024, 11:59 PM ET.
- If at this point the resolution source still does not list the new model's ELO, the underlying script(s) will be used to determine whether google's model tops the leaderboard.
- Note that the model must be released by the resolution date to be considered (if they release a new version of the model after the resolution date, it will not be considered for this market).
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T+0.3pt98%
+10 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 3,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 105,9K €
POLYMARKETWhich company does Ox Alpha belong to?
- Z.ai+12.2pt95%
- Google-2.1pt4%
- Nvidia+0.3pt1%
+20 altri esiti
KALSHIWhat will Zoom say during their next earnings call?
- Enterprise+3.0pt99%
- Agentic+16.0pt99%
- Contact Center+6.0pt99%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt65.7%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt11.8%
- Grok+0.4pt10.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 8 Mln €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- SpaceX-7.5pt58.2%
- Anthropic+4.5pt40.8%
- OpenAI+0.1pt1%
+9 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba+0.7pt95%
- Z.ai+0.3pt4%
- Moonshot-0.6pt1%
+8 altri esiti
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- XRP price on August 31
- OpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- Highest temperature in Miami on August 25, 2026?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- TOUR Championship Winner
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Google have the best LLM before 2024??
- Polymarket quota No al 100% al 24 aprile 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Google have the best LLM before 2024??
- Will Google have the best LLM before 2024? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2023.
- Come viene liquidato Will Google have the best LLM before 2024??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: If Google deploys an LLM that reaches the top of the Elo leaderboard on https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes".