How many Republican House Incumbents will not win their Primary?
6.3 pt (24h)PoliticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElezione
PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna quotazione live
Dati al 27 lug 2026, 16:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale4-6 79%-0.6ptIn testa tra 6 esiti
Qualita del mercato
32 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
0 €
Liquidità
3,9K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
2.9% / 35.9%
Spread
33.0 pt
Spread ampioVariazione 7g
+2.3 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 minuti fa
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
4-679%
Confronta le piattaforme· 3
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMigliore in assoluto80% di corrispondenza · verificato | Media | 24% | 0pt | 1,3K € | 177,5K € | 22 minuti fa | Apri → |
| PolymarketQuesta pagina | Bassa | 79% | +55pt | 0 € | 3,9K € | 22 minuti fa |
Disponibile anche su Kalshi
How many Senate Republicans will lose their primary in 2026?
2.0 pts3m
-1.0pt67%
-2.0pt24%
-1.9pt2%
+1 altri esiti
62 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità
Volume totale377,5K €
Volume 24h1,3K €
KALSHIRegole
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Trend del volume
$633 lug19g di dati27 lug
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The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
- This market will resolve according to the number of Republican House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
- An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason.
- Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
- This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026.
- If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.