PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Sì 50.5%-1.0pt
Qualità del mercato
≤49 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
140,3 €
Liquidità
1,6K €
Bassa liquiditàBid / Ask
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread strettoCommenti
2
Variazione 7g
+3.5 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 minuti fa
14 gen 26, 00:53 UTC5 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- - Democrats have a seat count of 235 or more in the House - Democrats have a seat count of 51 or more in the Senate
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026.
- Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat.
- The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress.
Confronto tra fonti di previsione
2 piattaforme quotano attualmente questo mercato. La probabilità di riferimento ponderata per la liquidità di CoinRithm per Riferimento CoinRithm è del 45%. Le quotazioni differiscono di circa 6 punti percentuali tra le piattaforme più distanti.
Riferimento CoinRithm 45% · 2 piattaforme · 6 pt di scarto tra venue
Mercati aperti
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff+0.1pt17%
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+48 altri esiti
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
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- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.5%
+45 altri esiti
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- Nicolás Maduro+24.8pt58.8%
- Delcy Rodríguez-27.5pt40.2%
- No Head of State+0.3pt1%
+13 altri esiti
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- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Third Term99%
+34 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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- Volume 24h
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KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep60.2%
- D-House, R-Senate-1.0pt29.6%
- Republicans sweep-1.6pt9.2%
+1 altri esiti
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- 14,8 Mln €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Blue tsunami in 2026??
- Polymarket quota Yes al 51% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Blue tsunami in 2026??
- Blue tsunami in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 5 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Blue tsunami in 2026??
- Polymarket liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Dove altro è quotato Blue tsunami in 2026??
- La stessa domanda è quotata anche su Kalshi.