Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Xi dies while in office, and Trump dies while not in office?

Manifold Markets quota No al 59.5% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Quando si risolve Xi dies while in office, and Trump dies while not in office?

Xi dies while in office, and Trump dies while not in office dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: both must happen to YES otherwise NO

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No 59.5%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 1 ora fa

In ritardo

1 gen 26, 04:27 UTC1 gen 27, 07:59 UTC

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Esito24hProbabilità

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both must happen to YES otherwise NO

Xi counts as yes if he dies within 3 days of being in office.
So: Xi retires, is replaced, and within 3 days dies, still counts as died in office.
We will reverse decisions based on what is eventually known if there is mystery. i.e. if he disappears for 4 days, then a new leader shows up, we'll do our best.
If we receive no information about a leadership change from the CCP then we will assume he is still the leader.