Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 74.2%
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12
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo17 mag 25, 07:02 UTC1 gen 00, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Israel still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill this market still exist in 2100? (Bet NO for signaling purposes)
Manifold MarketsWill Alphabet Inc. (Google) or Microsoft or Apple will still exist by 2100
Manifold MarketsWill humanity still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketWho will get a gap year at Hack Club in 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikipedia:Wikipedia_will_exist_in_the_far_future
- If it only exists in an archival form, historical museum exhibit, or similar, this resolves NO.
- In order to resolve YES it must exist in something like its present function, of being an active information resource.
- This is very subjective, don't bet if you don't trust my judgement.
- Update 2025-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * A major split (with controversy over the real Wikipedia) could resolve YES, but not if it splits too many times.
- If only a relatively small group is allowed to edit Wikipedia (even if it's online and updated), this market will resolve NO.
