Will "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.4%
Previsori
5
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 22 ore fa
Obsoleto11 set 25, 16:26 UTC1 feb 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get in 2026?
KalshiClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.