Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 76.4%
Previsori
8
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto22 dic 23, 05:32 UTC2 gen 30, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[ACX 2026] Will the US, UK or EU approve a gene editing therapy for a new condition during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill I get any new cavities after applying the Lantern Bioworks strain to my teeth by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill FDA approve any mRNA vaccine against any strain of influenza before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
KalshiAny vaccine against Alzheimer's disease to be safe and effective by the end of 2027?
FutuurHow many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
"major strain" = 20% or more of cases
- "have" = approved by the FDA
- "by 2030" = by Jan 1st 2030
- Though, I'm open suggestions.
Mercati aperti
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volume totale
- 15,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 18,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt65%
- September+2.0pt41%
- June28%
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Volume totale
- 916K €
- Volume 24h
- 1,5K €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-2.0pt57%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 863,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 1K €
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- When will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we have gene therapy for a major strain of Crohn's disease by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 76% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will we have gene therapy for a major strain of Crohn's disease by 2030??
- Will we have gene therapy for a major strain of Crohn's disease by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will we have gene therapy for a major strain of Crohn's disease by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: "major strain" = 20% or more of cases