Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 84.4%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto29 ago 23, 08:39 UTC1 gen 85, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2055?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a space elevator by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill Earth have a Space Elevator before 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:
- A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit
- Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether
- One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload
- There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic.
- Other markets on manifold predict a start date (at time of writing) of 2069.
