Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150??

Manifold Markets quota No al 70.7% al 3 novembre 2026.

Quando si risolve Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150??

Will we have a terrestrial space elevator by 2150? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2150.

Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:

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No 70.7%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Aggiornato 56 minuti fa

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4 set 23, 07:26 UTC1 gen 50, 23:59 UTC

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Resolves YES if the following is satisfied:

A tether from earth to a counterweight beyond geostationary orbit
Vehicles with capacity to lift over 1,000kg payload to geostationary orbit (presumably bigger but let's make it easy) by traversing the tether
One successful deployment of such a vehicle and payload
There was talk about doing this by 2050 (China, Japan), but I suspect that was a little overly optimistic.
My other, more optimistic market on this is at https://manifold.markets/Tomoffer/will-we-have-a-terrestrial-space-el?r=VG9tb2ZmZXI