Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 89.9%
Previsori
10
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto30 nov 23, 23:26 UTC1 nov 27, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we get AGI before August 15th 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true of the 1Y return of a small cap ETF (VB) vs. an SP500 ETF (VOO) on August 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegole
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as true if such a system is created and publicly announced before August 1st 2027
- Here are markets with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-we-get-agi-before-july-2027
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume totale
- 225,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 157K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 348,3K €
- Volume 24h
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027??
- Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 novembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will we get AGI before August 1st 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.