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Sì 74.2%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto31 dic 23, 14:25 UTC1 gen 50, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold MarketsWill Barack Obama be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be alive on the day a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill we get room temperature superconductors before a human walks on Mars?
Manifold MarketsWill we get AGI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.
- Unlike narrow or weak AI, which is designed and trained for specific tasks (like language translation, playing a game, or image recognition), AGI can theoretically perform any intellectual task that a human being can.
- It involves the capability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.
- Resolves as YES if we get AGI before a human ventures onto the Martian surface.
- AGI questions:
- @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2025
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 74% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars??
- Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2050.
- Come viene liquidato Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a type of artificial intelligence that has the ability to understand, learn, and apply its intelligence to a wide variety of problems, much like a human being.