Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 65.3%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
17 set 26, 04:52 UTC30 apr 27, 04:51 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the effective altruism movement be more popular at close (2027) than as of market creation (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWill Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Trump say in September?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during the United Nations General Assembly?
KalshiWhat will Trump say during his Rose Garden dinner?
KalshiRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
US Politics
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-10.0pt52.9%
- 25 bps increase+10.0pt45.1%
- 25 bps decrease-1.9pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 4,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.2pt93%
- Yes+2.2pt7%
- Volume totale
- 18,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 551,6K €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+3.0pt88.1%
- Republican Party-2.0pt11.9%
- Volume totale
- 27,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 549,5K €
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18%
- Gavin Newsom-0.1pt16%
- Jon Ossoff+0.2pt16%
+48 altri esiti
KALSHIWill Trump publicly criticize Kevin Warsh?
- Before Jan 1, 2027-5.0pt39%
- Before Dec 1, 202631.7%
- Before Nov 1, 202617.9%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 462,4K €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+3.0pt56%
- D-House, R-Senate32%
- Republicans sweep-3.0pt11%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 12,9 Mln €
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Nebraska Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Will the SAVE Act become law?
- Which party will win the U.S. Senate?
- Texas Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Maine Senate winner?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will trump say or write "effective altruism"??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 65% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will trump say or write "effective altruism"??
- Will trump say or write "effective altruism"? dovrebbe risolversi il 30 aprile 2027.