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Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffSociety & Culture4m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 70%
Previsori
18
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto9 gen 25, 01:18 UTC1 feb 27, 00:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Fiction" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
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PolymarketRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post [Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rationality meet at a Secular Solstice afterparty is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercati aperti
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.9 million89%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 18K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,9K €
KALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds66%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,5K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6K €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No-6.5pt72.3%
- Yes+6.5pt27.7%
- Volume totale
- 20K €
- Volume 24h
- 667,2 €
POLYMARKETIs Earth flat?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume totale
- 50,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 571,9 €
FORECASTEXWill University of Michigan rank first for public universities in 2027?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Volume totale
- 522,2 €
- Volume 24h
- 522,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Harvard tuition exceed $61,000 in 2026?
- Yes98%
- No2%
- Volume totale
- 522,2 €
- Volume 24h
- 522,2 €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 70% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will "[Fiction] [Comic] Effective Altruism and Rati..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.