Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 76.3%
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto9 dic 25, 05:22 UTC28 feb 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Federal employees at EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many government employees will Trump cut?
KalshiHow much government spending will Trump cut before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump cut corporate taxes this year?
KalshiWill Trump cut corporate taxes before 2027?
PolymarketWill Trump cut long term capital gains tax before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce.
- Will 2026 bring similar results?
- I will subtract the January 2026 reading of federal employee count from the January 2027 reading using the FRED federal employee counts given here:
- https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CES9091000001
- If the difference exceeds 100,000 the answer resolves yes, and no otherwise.
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 605,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 695,7K €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 603,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.4pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume totale
- 24,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 294,7K €
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
+35 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 54,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 291,3K €
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Trump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 76% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026?
- Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 28 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will Trump cut >100,000 federal employees in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: 2025 saw unprecedented impacts to the federal workforce.