Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

682,7 €

Sì: 89%

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?

December 31,: 45%

Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?

Sì: 19%

Will the United States impose additional tariffs on China by December 31, 2026?

Sì: 33%

FORECASTEX

What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

10% or above: 0%

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Regole

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.

Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?

Trade PolicyOne-OffUS Politics China6m

KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiCalibrazione approssimativa

Probabilità implicita attuale

Sì 79%

Qualita del mercato

40 / 100

Bassa qualità

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidità

4 €

Bassa liquidità

Bid / Ask

79.0% / 85.0%

Spread

7.6%

Spread moderato

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 14 minuti fa

3 giu 26, 23:304 feb 27, 13:29

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria

Esito scelto

Yes79%

Puntata (USDT)

Regole

If the the U.S. goods trade deficit with China for calendar year 2026 is below $150 billion, then the market resolves to Yes.

The Underlying is the calendar-year 2026 U.S. goods trade deficit with China, as calculated from the U.S.
Census Bureau’s “Trade in Goods with China” table.
For the purposes of this market, the deficit equals: 2026 imports from China minus 2026 exports to China
The market resolves to Yes if that amount is less than $150 billion.
The market resolves to No if that amount is greater than or equal to $150 billion.

Mercati Correlati

US x China tariff agreement by July 31?

108,3 €

Sì: 2%

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

682,7 €

Sì: 89%

Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?

December 31,: 45%

Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?

Sì: 19%

Will the United States impose additional tariffs on China by December 31, 2026?

Sì: 33%

FORECASTEX

What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?

10% or above: 0%