Previsione della comunità attuale
No 62.3%
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33
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto25 giu 23, 03:22 UTC1 gen 40, 05:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be a Moon base by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill NASA start building a moon base before 2036?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a moon base by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a profitable moon base by 2050?
Manifold MarketsMajority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRegole
To count as permanently inhabited, the base must meet the following conditions:
- It is continuously inhabited for at least a year.
- The period of continuous habitation must start before 2040, but it still counts even if it has not been a full year yet on Jan 1, 2040.
- There are no plans to leave the base uninhabited at any time within 10 years of the beginning of the period of continuous habitation.
- If the base is somehow destroyed before 2040 or the plan to continuously inhabit it for at least 10 years doesn't work out, it still counts as long as it meets to two conditions.
- See also: @/JosephNoonan/will-there-be-a-moon-base-by-2040
