Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 75.5%
Previsori
23
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto17 set 23, 14:31 UTC2 gen 50, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
KalshiRegole
The destination does not necessarily need to be the orbit of another star, but the mission should enter interstellar space.
- For the purposes of this market, "interstellar space" begins simply at 150 AU from the Sun.
Mercati aperti
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1K €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume totale
- 57,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4K €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume totale
- 817,9K €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 76% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250??
- Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2250.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The destination does not necessarily need to be the orbit of another star, but the mission should enter interstellar space.