Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 65.6%In testa tra 3 esiti
Previsori
34
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 17 ore fa
Obsoleto6 nov 25, 05:24 UTC15 gen 32, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's AI1 orbital data center be operational?
Manifold MarketsWill there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiRegole
Inspired by:
- [tweet]Does not include compute solely in support of normal satellite activities like communication or imaging.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "compute":
- Current satellite edge computing (e.g., Starlink's onboard processing for communications) does not count toward the 1GW threshold
- Only orbital data centers count - facilities where:
- The customer is indifferent about the data center's location (aside from price)
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume totale
- 225,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 157K €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 348,3K €
- Volume 24h
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
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- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 66% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031??
- Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031? dovrebbe risolversi il 15 gennaio 2032.
- Come viene liquidato Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Inspired by: