Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4??

Manifold Markets quota Yes al 79.4% al 27 ottobre 2026.

Will the performance jump from GPT4->GPT5 be less than the one from GPT3->GPT4?

IAOne-Off2m

Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibrato

Previsione della comunità attuale

Sì 79.4%

Previsori

Tipo di domanda

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo di fonte

Previsione

Dati di mercato

Aggiornato 5 ore fa

Obsoleto

1 apr 23, 18:39 UTC1 gen 27, 05:59 UTC

Trend

Esito24hProbabilità

Regole

When GPT5 comes out, lists its capabilities according to all quantifiable metrics, and compare that to the same for GPT4 and GPT3.

If Capabilities(GPT5-GPT4) < Capabilities(GPT4-GPT3), this market resolves YES.
Otherwise, this market resolves NO.
This is regardless of whether there are diminishing returns in the cost required to get from GPT4 to GPT5.