Will the number of people employed as software developers in the US decline by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028?
One-OffTecnologiaMacro ed economia2aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 60%
Previsori
87
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto3 mar 23, 01:31 UTC1 giu 29, 07:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the number of people employed as Information Security Analysts in US decrease by more than 15% from 2024 til 2044?
Manifold MarketsWill the number of Americans employed as Accountants/auditors decline from 2026 to 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Dan Ariely be employed as a tenured professor at Duke University at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
Manifold MarketsS&P 500 hits 8000 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will be in the Top 10 worldwide by market cap at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Recently, many have claimed that AI coding tools will soon make software developers obsolete.
- According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of people in the United States employed as software developers in 2021 was 1,364,180.
- The figure for 2022 has yet to be published, but is scheduled to be published later this year.
- This question resolves to YES if the number of people employed as "software developers" in the United States declines by more than 15% from 2023 to 2028 as determined by data published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
- Otherwise, it resolves to NO.
- In case the BLS declines to publish the relevant figures before 2030, this question resolves to N/A. If the BLS changes the definition of "software developer" substantially, or their method of counting those employed changes substantially, this question will also resolve to N/A, and I will judge whether the change was "substantial" at my sole discretion.
