Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?
IAOne-Off3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 80.7%
Previsori
78
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto17 mar 25, 23:31 UTC1 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US Software Engineer Union at Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, or Apple by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHighest OpenAI score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest Meta score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
PolymarketHighest score on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026?
KalshiWill Al achieve 85% or higher on the Humanity's Last Exam benchmark before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Will the first AI model that receives a score of 75 or higher be capable (with an agent scaffolding) of replacing a software engineer?
- Resolves based on my personal judgement, in particular whether it is cost- and time-effective for ZeroPath to use it to replace one of our engineers (or accomplish the same amount with fewer people).
- Example tasks it should be capable of:
- "Fix this error we're getting on BetterStack."
- "Move our Redis cache from DigitalOcean to AWS."
- "Add and implement a cancellation feature for ZeroPath scans."
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 132,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 100,3K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 322,4K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 81% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer??
- Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will the first AI model that receives a score of 75 or higher be capable (with an agent scaffolding) of replacing a software engineer?