Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoQuesto mercato si è risolto: Yes (97.4%)
Risolto: 25 ott 2026, 13:47
Risoluzione verificata dal provider
CoinRithm dispone di prove del provider sul vincitore e sul momento di regolamento di questo mercato.
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Yes97.4%
No2.5999999999999943%
Vinta
Persa
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]
Manifold MarketsCoinflip of the century (experiment in prediction markets, read description)
Manifold MarketsWhen will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)
Manifold MarketsWhich answers will *exactly* match a *full* New York Times front page headline before 2028? [READ DESCRIPTION]
Manifold MarketsNintendo Switch Sports Resort: Metacritic score
KalshiBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegole
Resolves YES if there exists a publicly available, usable by hobbyists, softmod for the Nintendo Switch 2 before market close.
- An unreleased or one-off hack doesn't count.
- Any OS version, game, etc counts as long as it was ever publicly available at some point.
- "soft" - Does not require nontrivial disassembly of the console, does not require specialist tools or devices (including flashcarts), and does not require permanent physical alterations to the console.
- For example, something like the fusee-gelee vulnerability would count because it can be accomplished without disassembly, with everyday hardware (you can use a paperclip or something instead of a jig), and does not require a permanent hardware modification.
- "mod" - Must be able to run nontrivial homebrew code.
