Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 66.8%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto3 set 26, 21:21 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsWill "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsGPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
PolymarketWhich models will GPT-6 Astra be higher than on arena.ai agent arena on the 12th September?
Manifold MarketsGPT 6 Astra debut arena score
KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).
- https://epoch.ai/benchmarks?view=graph&tab=eci
- [link preview]
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volume totale
- 125,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 55K €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,3 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 67% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release??
- Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).