Previsione della comunità attuale
Sì 56.2%
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2
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 5 minuti fa
11 set 26, 10:26 UTC31 dic 27, 10:22 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsTop Coding AI this month (DeepSWE)
KalshiNFL MVP Winner
GeminiMLS Cup Champion
GeminiRegole
Resolves YES if the compaction responses for the next Fable model always contain some encrypted / opaque blobs intended to be passed back to the model, similarly to how OpenAI compaction works.
- Resolves N/A if no new Fable model is released by the close date.
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Volume totale
- 125,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 55K €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 altri esiti
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,3 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,4 Mln €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 56% al 11 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction??
- Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES if the compaction responses for the next Fable model always contain some encrypted / opaque blobs intended to be passed back to the model, similarly to how OpenAI compaction works.