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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 10:06 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
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Aggiornato 22 minuti fa
1 lug 22, 19:52 UTC8 nov 28, 04:59 UTC
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Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach it's quorum before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach the needed 270 votes?
Manifold MarketsWill at least one state that enacted the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact withdraw from it by EOY 2035?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact reach majority in the Electoral college before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact go into effect by July 2028?
PredictIt2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
KalshiRegole
The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPVIC) is an agreement among a group of U.S. states and the District of Columbia to award all their electoral votes to whichever presidential candidate wins the overall popular vote in the 50 states and the District of Columbia.
- The compact is designed to ensure that the candidate who receives the most votes nationwide is elected president, and it would come into effect only when it would guarantee that outcome.
- As of June 2022, it has been adopted by fifteen states and the District of Columbia.
- These states have 195 electoral votes, which is 36% of the Electoral College and 72% of the 270 votes needed to give the compact legal force.
- (Per https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact )
- On election day 2028, if the NPVIC controls enough votes to reach the threshold for activation (currently 270), this market resolves YES.
