Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 92.6%
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8
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
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Aggiornato 12 ore fa
Obsoleto8 lug 26, 20:01 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will the EU AI Act lead to an enforcement action against a frontier AI lab in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic sign the Open Weights and American AI Leadership letter?
KalshiWill the SAVE Act become law?
KalshiWill the SAVE America Act become law?
KalshiWhich bills will become law in 2026?
KalshiWhich bills will become law in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).
- Here is an article about the substance by Charlie Bullock: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/congress-should-do-something--the-case-for-(fixing)-the-great-american-ai-act
- I can't really figure out what the status is.
- This market uses an expansive definition of "become law".
- It resolves YES if the bill is passed and becomes law in 2026, even if it is somewhat watered down or modified, as long as it remains an AI regulation and/or preemption bill.
- It also resolves YES if the bill's substantive provisions are fully folded into another bill which becomes law, though it resolves NO if only super dumb and toothless provisions make it in.