Previsione della comunità attuale
No 89.6%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto28 dic 23, 09:26 UTC1 gen 31, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Artificial Intelligence drive at least 3.5% of Global GDP in 2030?
Manifold Markets👽 Will scientists announce a credible potential signal from extraterrestrial intelligence before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill humanity detect evidence of an extraterrestrial intelligence before the year 2100?
Manifold MarketsUN agency for artificial intelligence created in 2026?
FutuurLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketNext Grok Model (4.7+) released on?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.
- The identification must meet the following criteria:
- Scientific Validation: The identification of extraterrestrial intelligence as an artificial intelligence must be reported in at least one peer-reviewed scientific publication in a journal of significant academic recognition.
- The publication should be in fields such as astrobiology, astronomy, artificial intelligence, or related scientific disciplines.
- High-impact journals like ‘Nature’, ‘Science’, or similar status publications are preferable.
- Confirmation by Expert Panels or Authorities: The identification must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two expert panels or recognized authorities in the fields of extraterrestrial research, artificial intelligence, or space exploration.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume totale
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- Volume 24h
- 160,5K €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 altri esiti
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
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- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 344,9K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030??
- Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2031.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first sign of extraterrestrial intelligence be identified as an artificial intelligence by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.