Previsione della comunità attuale
No 89.6%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto28 dic 23, 09:26 UTC1 gen 31, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a Republican congressperson be identified as a white nationalist by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitochondria mutations be identified as the primary root cause of aging by 2035?
Manifold MarketsRetrotransposon activation identified as the primary root cause of ageing by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill an environmental factor be identified as key contributor to sporadic ALS by 1/1/2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Claude be the best AI at the end of October 2026? (LLM) (artificial intelligence) (leaderboard)?
ForecastExUN agency for artificial intelligence created in 2026?
FutuurRegole
This market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if, by December 31, 2030, the first confirmed sign of extraterrestrial intelligence is identified specifically as an artificial intelligence.
- The identification must meet the following criteria:
- Scientific Validation: The identification of extraterrestrial intelligence as an artificial intelligence must be reported in at least one peer-reviewed scientific publication in a journal of significant academic recognition.
- The publication should be in fields such as astrobiology, astronomy, artificial intelligence, or related scientific disciplines.
- High-impact journals like ‘Nature’, ‘Science’, or similar status publications are preferable.
- Confirmation by Expert Panels or Authorities: The identification must be independently confirmed or endorsed by at least two expert panels or recognized authorities in the fields of extraterrestrial research, artificial intelligence, or space exploration.
