Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 64.6%
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4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto11 ago 26, 14:29 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketWhen will Rocket Lab Corporation launch Neutron
KalshiWhen will Rocket Lab’s Neutron make its first flight?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWhich is first in 2026: Starship refueling, New Glenn RTF, or Neutron?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit in September 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if the first orbital launch attempt of Rocket Lab's Neutron rocket successfully reaches its target orbit.
- This market will resolve to NO if the first launch attempt fails to reach orbit (e.g., due to an explosion, a failure of the first or second stage, or any other anomaly that prevents the vehicle/payload from achieving a stable orbit).
- Key details and edge cases:
- Definition of Success: Success is defined as the rocket's upper stage successfully achieving orbit, or deploying its payload (or a simulated test mass) into the planned target orbit, as officially announced by Rocket Lab, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), or independent satellite tracking databases (e.g., Jonathan's Space Report or Space-Track.org).
- Booster Recovery: The recovery, landing, or reusable splashdown attempt of the first-stage booster is not required for a "YES" resolution, unless Rocket Lab defines the entire mission as a failure solely due to a landing anomaly.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 65% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will the first Neutron rocket launch be a success ??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria