Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026?
IATecnologia2mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeN = 100 100%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
100
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-0.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto2 giu 25, 20:08 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027
Manifold MarketsWho is Dwarkesh's upcoming "biggest guest yet"?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegole
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:
- A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft.
- It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.
- The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.
- A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.