Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 90%
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
14 ott 26, 08:33 UTC29 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
By when will Starship deploy a payload bigger than a Starlink?
Manifold MarketsWill we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship successfully land for the first time?
Manifold MarketsWill 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?
Manifold Marketswill india have a mars space mission in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
Description / Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves based on whether Starship successfully deploys the payload or payload simulator explicitly scheduled for deployment during SpaceX's Starship Flight 15 mission.
- (obviously Starlink satellites)
- YES if SpaceX confirms that the planned payload has been successfully released from Starship during Flight 15, and the release is supported by official mission footage or an official mission update.
- NO if the planned payload is not released, or not relaeasd completely , the deployment attempt fails, the payload remains attached to Starship, or SpaceX confirms that the planned deployment did not occur.
- A payload merely being carried into space, reaching orbit, or being visible inside Starship does not count as successful deployment.
